Monday, June 17, 2024

#ARPostMortem: Marginalized

A quick lunchtime peek around the margins of defeat (or victory, depending on your perspective) in the federal races and AR-Gov.  All numbers are from, and all numbers are subject to slight changes unless otherwise noted.

AR-Sen: John Boozman (60.38%), Blanche Lincoln (33.96%).  Margin: 26.42. Analysis: Ouch.  I know that Lincoln’s internals showed a gap of roughly that size, but everyone I spoke to thought that Lincoln would get inside of 20%.  Guess not.  The scariest part is that Lincoln’s margin of defeat theoretically could have been worse had President Clinton not stumped for her.

AR-01: Rick Crawford (53.44), Chad Causey (41.22). Margin: 12.22.  Analysis:  Well, Ken Adler (5.06) definitely had an impact, but not the kind of impact that cost Causey this race.  Still, factor in the Adler votes and you’re talking about 7 points of difference between Republicans and Democrats in AR-01.  That sounds about right given everything else we saw last night.

AR-02: Timmy! Griffin (57.84), Joyce Elliot (38.34). Margin:  19.50.  Analysis:  Wow.  Look, I am generally not one to play the race card, and, as I said before, I felt all along that race was only going to be a hindrance for Elliott if it was a factor at all.  It looks like I was right, too; can anyone honestly say with a straight face that a white candidate (and especially a white male candidate) would not have fared better against Griffin than did Elliott?

AR-03: Steve Womack (72.21), David Whitaker (27.79).  Margin: 44.42. Analysis: Not even remotely a surprise.  The question came up during our AEL radio spot whether Whitaker had a bright future as a Dem in this state.  I said then and I say now that his viability as a candidate, assuming the Democratic Party is actually composed of Democrats, is limited to the third congressional district.  Whitaker is basically D.C. Morrison without the sense of humor.

AR-04: Mike Ross (57.18), Beth Anne Rankin (40.46).  Margin: 16.72. Analysis: Another non-shocking outcome.  I cannot stress enough how grateful I am that Beth Anne Rankin is not representing Arkansans in Washington.  We are the butt of enough national jokes as it is.

AR-Gov: Mike Beebe (64.18), Jim Keet (33.82).  Margin: 30.36.  Analysis:  We all knew he would win.  We all pretty much agreed that he’d win by a hefty margin.  This one only surprises me because other Dems, especially Shane Broadway, were not able to ride Beebe’s momentum into down-ballot office.  It says something about the Gov that he can win by thirty in an election where so many of his fellow Dems lost by double digits.

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