The Arkansas Election Line — a collaboration of Talk Business, The Tolbert Report, and Blue Hog Report — announces the first of two changes in our analysis of U.S. Congressional races. In AR-02, the Election Line moves its rating from “Leans Griffin” to “Safe Griffin.”
This change is due to several factors, including Tim Griffin’s wide margin in recent polling as well as the sizable gap between Griffin and Joyce Elliott in cash-on-hand. These tangible numbers, combined with national and state-wide trends in favor of Republican candidates as well as a shockingly large enthusiasm gap between GOP and Democrat voters, suggest that, if the election were held today, Griffin would win easily.
Elliott is likely to benefit from campaign help in the form of former President Clinton as well as DCCC money, so Arkansas Election Line will re-evaluate prior to November 2. Whether the cache of Clinton or an influx of money can actually dent Griffin’s lead, however, remains to be seen.
The Arkansas Election Line issues election ratings for several high-profile state and federal races. Our ratings provide an instant snapshot of a given race, and they can be “safe,” “strong,” “leans,” or “toss-up.”
Coming tomorrow: AR-01.