Monday, June 24, 2024

AR-Sen: What A Difference A Day Makes

An overnight poll by Research 2000, as reported by Democracy for America, shows Bill Halter ahead of Blanche Lincoln.  Among the questions asked:

QUESTION: Who did you vote for in the Democratic Primary election today, Blanche Lincoln, Bill Halter, or D.C. Morrison?

ALL 44% 43% 13%
MEN 47% 39% 14%
WOMEN 41% 47% 12%

QUESTION: If the Democratic primary for Senate results in a run-off election between Blanche Lincoln and Bill Halter on June 8, do you plan to vote?

ALL 86% 6% 8%
MEN 85% 6% 9%
WOMEN 87% 6% 7%

QUESTION: If yes, do you plan to vote for Blanche Lincoln or Bill Halter?

ALL 48% 46% 6%
MEN 44% 49% 7%
WOMEN 52% 43% 5%

I need to look a little more closely at the question wording before I am 100% comfortable with the results, but at first glance the questions seem fine, as does the methodology :

A Research 2000 Arkansas Poll was conducted on May 18. A total of 500 Democratic voters who voted in the Democratic Primary for US Senate were interviewed state wide by telephone.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4.5% percentage points.

By now, you know my oft-repeated caveats when talking about poll results that are with the MOE.  That said, this poll is such a drastic departure even from polls that were released only a week ago that this can only be seen as a positive for the Halter campaign.

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