Everyone’s favorite misinterpreter of polls, Glenn Gallas, busts out his T-85 calculator and opines:
A generic ballot gives the Republican candidate a +1.1% advantage over a Democrat. Add this data to the 70.5% disapproval rating for Congress and this doesn’t bode well for the Mike Ross camp.
Ignoring that 1.1% cannot possibly be statistically meaningful in these polls, how about the fact that the poll Gallas cites is a general, nationwide generic ballot? If we go state-specific, the same people who compiled the nationwide polling numbers show AR-04 as the ONLY “Likely Dem” seat in the state.