Monday, May 20, 2024

AR-Sen: Lincoln Leads, Still Lacks 50%+1

I have absolutely no idea how I failed to mention this last week, but the latest Daily Kos / Research 2000 poll has Blanche Lincoln leading Bill Halter 45% to 33%, with 6% for D.C. Morrison and 16% still undecided (+/- 5% margin of error).

That gap is outside the MOE, and, with less than a month to go, this poll suggests strongly that Halter faces an uphill battle.  Whether that battle turns out more like Cemetery Ridge or like Mt. Suribachi will probably depend on how some of the other numbers revealed in the poll interact down the stretch:

Blanche Lincoln: Favorable–43%, Unfavorable–53%
Bill Halter: Favorable–47%, Unfavorable–30%

w/ Men
Blanche Lincoln: Favorable–40%, Unfavorable–56%
Bill Halter: Favorable–43%, Unfavorable–35%

w/ Women
Blanche Lincoln: Favorable–46%, Unfavorable–50%
Bill Halter: Favorable–51%, Unfavorable–25%

w/18-29 y.o. voters
Blanche Lincoln: Favorable–43%, Unfavorable–52%
Bill Halter: Favorable–51%, Unfavorable–24%

w/ 30-44 y.o. voters
Blanche Lincoln: Favorable–43%, Unfavorable–53%
Bill Halter: Favorable–46%, Unfavorable–31%

w/ 45-59 y.o. voters
Blanche Lincoln: Favorable–43%, Unfavorable–53%
Bill Halter: Favorable–48%, Unfavorable–29%

w/ 60+ y.o. voters
Blanche Lincoln: Favorable–42%, Unfavorable–54%
Bill Halter: Favorable–43%, Unfavorable–35%

Barack Obama: Favorable–38%, Unfavorable–60% [Author’s note: Really?  Because… umm… why, exactly?  Oh, that durned sociamalized medicine the gubmint is forcing you to have!  Oh, that’s right.  /shakes head in disgust]

Two things jump out.  First, Lincoln’s favorable/unfavorable percentages are amazingly consistent across the demographic splits.  Second, Lincoln is polarizing enough that very few people have not formed an opinion on her one way or the other, while Halter has a much larger percentage of voters still in the “No Opinion” column.

Basically, everyone seems to like Halter more…they just don’t seem ready to vote for him for some reason.  Were I in charge of such things (and I am most definitely NOT in charge of such things), the overwhelming majority of my efforts in advertising and personal appearances would not mention Lincoln any more than was necessary, and would instead give all the reasons why a person should want to to vote for Bill Halter.  The people in Lincoln’s camp at this point are staying there; Halter needs (apparently) to persuade the anti-Lincolnites to jump into his side of the pool where the water is fine and the pH is nicely balanced.

Also, just as an aside, I loved this part of the poll:  When asked “If the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Bill Halter and Blanche Lincoln?”

If the choices are Halter or Lincoln in this hypothetical, why is there an “Other” column?

“Please choose A or B.”

“I choose C.”

“Good choice, sir!”

Recent Articles

Related Stories